52. The year of political death

For an analysts like me, it is kind of obligatory to consider the passing year. Whose year was it? What was the year about? I could easily say that 2016 was the year of the Fillon-surprise, but in fact, it was rather the year of political death. In 2016 – unexpectedly or not – France executed a major part of Read More …

51. Marine Le Pen: one step closer to the presidency

So far, when people asked me about the French presidential elections, I have always answered that whosoever won the Republican primary on 27 November, was likely to become the next French president. In this sentence, the keyword is “so far”. Donald J. Trump’s victory has created a whole new situation, at least mentally. Marine Le Pen’s presidential chances have considerably Read More …

50. Someone please tell me what Hollande is doing…

A book based on about 100 hours of interviews with François Hollande was published by two Le Monde journalists, Gérard Davet and Fabrice Lhomme. The title “A President Shouldn’t Say That…” practically tells all. I do not know what Hollande’s intention with this book was. To improve his image, or to enter the presidential campaign? Instead, he just gave his Read More …

41. President Marine Le Pen?

A socialist MP, Malek Boutih has just scared everything out of his fellow socialists. In an interview he declared that Marine Le Pen was going to be the next president of France. It’s done, finito, fait accompli. Is he right though? Should we get used to a “President Marine Le Pen”? How far is the presidency from her reach?

39. Why the French economy matters – more than you think

Common wisdom says that incumbents get reelected more easily when the economy is booming. Also, they are more often fired by electors when the economy is in trouble. A whole series of 2008 incumbents can confirm this: the Republican Party (and John McCain) in the U.S., the Labour Party (and Gordon Brown) in Great Britain, or even President Sarkozy of Read More …